Case Reaction from Cedric Chin

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This is the case reaction for "92-Year-Old Singaporean Distributor Closes Shop Forever." It's a case about FoodXervices, its eventual bankruptcy, and its liquidation in 2026.

If you consume this case the way it was meant to be consumed — side by side with the Ample Hills Creamery case — it becomes quite difficult to reason about what the mistake actually was. What mistake did the Ng siblings make when they were running the company? Unlike Ample Hills, which was a bog-standard story of novice businesspeople expanding too quickly and in an unhealthy manner, pursuing bad growth until the whole business collapsed under its own overextension, FoodXervices was different. It's not at all clear that what they did was wrong.

If it weren't for the COVID-19 pandemic — which, I would remind you, nobody saw coming in 2019 — I would wager that FoodXervices would still be around today. Nichol says in the case that they were the poster child, the most successful example in their segment, at least in terms of perception. They had even started a nonprofit arm. In fact, that's one of the funnier bits at the end of the case, where Nichol's dad essentially asks, "Why did you upskill all your staff? Why did you build an NGO from scratch off the profits of your company?" He told her not to spend money on charity. Then again, her dad is a traditional Chinese businessman who is focused on making money, and he also lost everything during the Asian financial crisis, so that would probably colour his perception quite a bit.

But think about it: the Ng siblings were very successful businesspeople. You can't say they weren't good at what they did. They grew the family business from single-digit millions to double-digit millions over the course of slightly over a decade, taking it over in 2007. Everything was going very smoothly until 2019, and then COVID-19 hit. A once-in-a-generation, once-in-a-lifetime event. You simply cannot expect anyone to have prepared for that.

Even though it's quite difficult to figure out what they could have done differently, I think this case captures the fact that expansion is genuinely risky. You need to expand in order to survive — if you don't grow in a dynamic, competitive market, which FoodXervices certainly was in, you will eventually die. But every time you expand, you take on risk. The risk comes from the temporality of cash flows: you have to spend money, take on debt, build an asset or grow the business, and the return on that capital only comes in a couple of years later. In that intervening period, if your balance sheet isn't strong enough and anything happens to your cash flows, you suddenly cannot service the debt load you've taken on.

That's exactly what happened here. They took out a mortgage to buy a piece of property, demolished it, and rebuilt the warehouse from scratch, envisioning it as a multipurpose space. And it really was quite a impressive building — not just a warehouse, but a venue for events and a potential home for their NGO as well. If COVID-19 hadn't happened, I'm willing to bet the business's cash flows would have paid off that mortgage, they would have owned that building free and clear, and they would have emerged stronger for it. It just so happened that COVID-19 occurred, and they didn't survive it.

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say they should have held more cash on the balance sheet. This kind of business had decent margins, especially when they had the Kimberly-Clark deal, which sounded like a Cornered Resource for a number of years. In the final years, though, Nichol and Nicholas were facing competition from Chinese suppliers undercutting Kimberly-Clark at a fraction of the price, so that monopoly wasn't nearly as valuable as when they'd first won it in 2008.

In an alternate universe, they would still be the poster boy and girl of the industry — remarkable, successful, worth emulating. But we don't live in that universe. We live in one where COVID-19 happened, and it turned out that the warehouse was their undoing. Unlike Ample Hills Creamery, these were competent businesspeople. They'd been in the game for a decade and had grown the business successfully throughout.

So there are no clear-cut 'lessons'. You could argue they should have been even more conservative — holding more cash, maintaining credit lines they could draw on in the worst-case, unimaginable scenario of a global pandemic shutting down their industry. You could also argue they should have diversified, but that's asking them to hedge against a pandemic nobody could have imagined. So my reaction is simply that this story is very sad, and it's worth keeping in the back of your mind whenever you're thinking about expansion. The Ngs got unlucky with this one.